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Prediction for CME (2024-11-25T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-25T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35337/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARILY CLOSED OUT: PENDING FURTHER ANALYSIS OF FINAL SIGNATURE. CME first seen to the E in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2024-11-25T21:36Z. CME also seen to the E in SOHO LASCO C3 (partially obscured by pylon) and STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is likely some activity involving ARs 3905 and 3906 staring around 2025-11-25T17:00Z that continues for a few hours. The movement and brightening is particularly visible in SDO AIA 304 and SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-29T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35339/1
Model Inputs:
2024-11-25T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=504.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2024-11-26T03:53Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-29T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-26T20:23Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-28T06:00Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-29T00:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-28T22:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241126_035300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 61.22 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-11-26T16:47Z

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